Nominees for the final Oscar precursor were announced yesterday - the shortlist for the Director's Guild of America awards. The Five directors nominated were:
Darren Aronofsky, BLACK SWAN
David Fincher, THE SOCIAL NETWORK
Tom Hooper, THE KING'S SPEECH
Christopher Nolan, INCEPTION
David O. Russell, THE FIGHTER
So when it comes to the Oscars, two things are certain - these five listed films are locks for Best Picture nominations, and one of these five will ultimately take the prize. Sure, five more will be nominated but over the last twenty years no film has taken Best Picture at the Oscars without its director getting a DGA nomination too. (Hell, only three times in twenty years has the DGA winner not gone on to take the Oscar for Best Director).
Some thoughts with this last little bit of clarity...
The late charge of TRUE GRIT has officially ended. The film is a solid late-season offering, and could still go home with an award or two. But barring a wicked about-face by the Academy, and its directors forsaking David O. Russell for The Coens, it has taken its final ride.
Speaking of David O. Russell, welcome to the party! O. Ruseell was reportedly moved to tears at the news of his nomination. Given the fact that the man's last project was yanked from under him, and that for THE FIGHTER this auteur was more of a hired gun, this had to be catharsis. Perhaps if an Oscar nomination does indeed follow, he'll have that much more clout in securing his next film.
Under the category of "so much for that", no love for two stellar bits of directing this year by women, with Debra Granik and Lisa Cholodenko both left at the kids' table.
And finally for those who are fans of new blood in this tired old Oscar game, it should be noted that four of the five presumptive nominees for Best Director will be first timers (David Fincher you will recall scored a nod two years back for THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON).
So there you have it, your presumptive Oscar nominees for Best Director, and the five films with the best odds-on chances of taking Best Picture.
Thoughts?
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10 comments:
maybe they just don't think he's paid his full dues yet but I keep thinking that Aaron Schneider and Get Low are really being over-looked in all the noms that have come out.
Hmm...out of those I would probably give it to Darren Aronofsky...although I haven't seen The Fighter yet...
I feel a bit bad about the impending Oscars. After years of the most progressively diverse Oscars in history we're likely to travel back to 1940's with a lot of white middle aged men taking up the nominations. Granik and Cholodenko will likely garner writing nominations with an outside shot at a best picture nom (Winter's Bone being released early on in the year is a bit of a double edged sword - helped avoid the rush but the rush overcast its merits).
@ Danger... I think that with the exception of Duvall's work in that film the book has closed on it.
@ Vanessa... I'd love to see Aronofsky take home some of these awards, though I'd place good monye on it going to either Hooper or Fincher in the end.
@ Helms... 40's? Hell the 90's didn't even come with that much diversity. Take people like Lee daniels, Ang Lee, and Kathryn Bigelow out of the equation and it's pretty much been the "Five White Boy" category for a good long while.
KIDS and WINTER do both stand good chances of a Best Pic nomination...though I'm now skeptical that both will make the jump.
Awesome how 80% of the noms are first timers. It's nice to see these groups recognizing different talent. If I had to choose one to win, I'd go with Nolan, even though Fincher all but has this one in the bag! I am surprised at the lack of love for the women though. Both those films seem to have lost a ton of steam in the last weeks, thanks to the domination of these five. Oh well. I'm not complaining. With the exception of LET ME IN, the DGA noms are a spitting image of my top five movies of the year, so I'm pretty happy with how it turned out.
DGA ballots have been out for months now ... I don't think we can say that the late "surge" for TRUE GRIT has ended because these awards aren't entirely representative of the second phase of the season.
Shame the Coen Bros. were overlooked. I predict Fincher will win, although Nolan deserves it more.
@ Sebastian... This is especially good news considering old favorites like Leigh, Scorsese, Polanski, and Eastwood were all potential nominees this year!
@ Marshall... DGA ballots went out at the very end of November and weren't due until last week. Considering that Paramount would have scheduled multiple DGA screenings giving voters a chance to see it and vote, its fair to say that members saw it and passed it up. There's still an outside shot things could change in two weeks (call it the Nolan/Daldry factor), but I'd be a tad surprised if they did.
@ Alex... I think it'll be Fincher too, though after getting passed over for DARK KNIGHT, I'd wager that Nolan still might be holding his breath.
Much like the Oscar voters, DGA voters are apparently notorious for turning in their ballots early. So while you may be right to a certain extent, I don't think it reflects the late surge. However, this confirms what I've been thinking for a long time - "True Grit" is not in the race to win it.
@ Marshall... Weird practice. If I got a vote, I'd want to hold off as long as possible to see and ruminate on as many films as I could.
To be clear, I'm not saying that TRUE GRIT can't/won't land a nomination...I just think its chance to win just took a bit of a hit.
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